Holiday Shopping Has Changed. Has Your Strategy?

Last season, U.S. Black Friday online sales reached $10.8 billion, a 10.2% increase year-over-year; the biggest annual rise since 2020. Global Black Friday spending hit $74.4 billion in 2024, a 5% YoY lift. 

Mobile continues to dominate: smartphones generated 54.5% of U.S. Black Friday ecommerce revenue in 2024 (up from 51.1% in 2023). Globally, mobile accounted for 70% of all online orders. 

Across the full Cyber Week (Thanksgiving → Cyber Monday), 197 million Americans participated in 2024, the second-highest total on record. 

What this tells us: Even amid economic headwinds, holiday sales remain a crucible of consumer behavior, device preferences, and channel shifts. But it's no longer "set and forget.” The season demands strategic agility, deep audience understanding, and cross-channel fluency.

What's Changing 

1. Mobile-First (But the Conversion Gap Remains the Real Story)

With over half of Black Friday ecommerce revenue coming from mobile, retail performance now critically depends on seamless mobile UX, fast load times, and checkout fluency. Yet mobile-first does not equal mobile-same: conversion paths, content layout, incentives, and speed all matter more than ever.

The insight: While mobile traffic hit 64% during Cyber Week (a 12% increase YoY), the gap between mobile traffic share and mobile revenue share persists. Desktop traffic dropped to an all-time low of 26% in 2024, yet desktop users still convert at higher rates. This means mobile optimization isn't just about being "mobile-friendly.” It also requires fundamentally rethinking the conversion architecture for smaller screens, shorter sessions, and thumb-driven navigation.

What this means: Mobile optimization is table stakes. The front-end must perform, but backend reliability (checkout speed, payment flexibility (BNPL, wallets), inventory syncing) is now a competitive differentiator. Brands winning on mobile aren't just responsive; they've rebuilt their entire funnel for the device.

2. BNPL Is Reshaping Purchase Psychology, Not Just Payment Terms

With mobile wallets and "Buy Now, Pay Later" (BNPL) increasingly common — and discounted deals front-loaded — many shoppers are stretching budgets, not abandoning them. Consumers spent $18.2 billion using BNPL during the 2024 holiday season, a 9.6% increase compared to 2023. On Black Friday alone, BNPL drove $686.3 million in online purchases, up 8.8% YoY. 

The insight: What's particularly notable is where this spending happens: 79% of BNPL purchases occurred on mobile devices ($14.4 billion of the holiday total). This isn't just a payment trend; it signals a fundamental shift in how consumers approach larger purchases. BNPL users show an 85% higher average order value than customers using other payment methods. The technology is enabling a new purchase psychology where "affordability" is redefined as "manageability."

What this means: Campaigns should integrate flexibility (pre-holiday reminders, pay-later promotions, layered cart incentives) rather than one-time discounts only. Retailers without BNPL options at checkout are increasingly losing high-intent mobile shoppers to competitors who offer that flexibility.

3. Two-Day Deals Have Dissolved, And Early Signals Are Your New KPIs

What used to be a two-day flash sale is now a full month (or longer). Data shows that purchase intent and traffic begin weeks earlier than Black Friday, and many buyers plan across multiple touchpoints.

The insight: In 2024, 25% of shoppers started their holiday shopping in October, up from 19% in 2023; a 6-percentage-point jump representing roughly 15 million additional early shoppers. For 2025, 61% of consumers plan to start buying gifts before the end of October, and nearly three-quarters (74%) say they'll begin earlier than in previous years. 

This isn't just about spreading spend; it's about spreading risk. Consumers are starting early to avoid out-of-stock situations, spread payments for budget management, and hedge against price manipulation (21.5% of consumers believe retailers inflate prices before applying holiday "discounts"). 

What this means: Marketing strategy needs to start early (awareness, audience seeding, influencer partnerships, content planning), well before the discount-heavy window. Brands that wait until "Black Friday Week" have already missed critical planning phases and the early-bird buyers.

4. First-Touch Doesn't Mean Final-Conversion; LTV Now Outweighs ROAS

With post-holiday returns, delayed purchase cycles, and prolonged cart recovery windows being common, the real value from holiday shoppers may not land until Q1.

The insight: The 2024 data reveals a telling shift: while global Cyber Week discounts averaged 26% (down 1% from 2023), retailers faced strong margin pressures from a 97% increase in supply chain costs. Deep discounting isn't the answer when margins are this tight. Instead, winning brands are optimizing for customer lifetime value, building relationships that drive repeat purchases beyond the holiday window. Retailers using AI-powered customer service saw a 9% higher conversion rate on Black Friday 2024, and AI influenced an estimated $60 billion in holiday sales.

What this means: Treat holiday customers not as one-time buyers but as retention candidates. Identify high-intent segments early (email signups, wishlists, cart-abandons), and build post-holiday nurture cycles. The brands measuring success by December ROAS alone are leaving significant value on the table.

What 2025 Holiday Campaigns Should Learn From 2024

Phase	Strategic Objective	Tactics
Pre-Holiday (Sep–Oct)	Seed interest, avoid discount fatigue	Brand storytelling, product teasers, community building, and content marketing
Early Sale Push (Nov 1–15)	Capture early deciders, test messaging	Soft promos, email segments, retargeting, and early-bird incentives
Holiday Peak (Black Friday → Cyber Monday)	Convert, maximize AOV, reduce friction	Mobile-first UX, BNPL/payment options, urgency + value stacking
Post Holiday (Dec–Jan)	Lock in repeat business, build LTV	Thank-you flows, re-engagement campaigns, cross-sell, reviews/referrals

Optimize for Signal, Not Just Redemption

This is where most agencies get it wrong: they chase redemptions with the deepest promo and call it success.

At FTF, we take a different approach. Our analytics practice connects closed-loop data across the entire customer journey (from first impression through repeat purchase) because we know that the best signal isn't always the first conversion. We use first-party data, behavior-based segmentation, and multivariate testing to find quality buyers, not impulse clickers.

Discounts are a tool, not a crutch.

Build Flexible Checkout and Payment Stacks Before Peak Traffic Hits

Experience defines purchase probability. In a crowded, discount-heavy environment, checkout experience, fast shipping, and payment flexibility increasingly determine who wins.

At FTF, we stress-test the entire conversion funnel before peak traffic arrives. Poor UX can nullify even steep discounts. Great UX multiplies every dollar you spend on acquisition.

Plan for Retention Before Buyers Arrive

With holiday selling cycles stretching longer and conversions decoupling from first click, retention must be baked into your campaign architecture from day one.

This isn't about "post-holiday email sequences." It's about building the infrastructure (CRM flows, audience segmentation, churn prediction) that lets you identify high-value customers the moment they engage, not months later.

Why This Matters (Even for Non-Retail Brands)

Even if you don’t sell a physical product, shifts in consumer behavior ripple across any digital business:

• Conversion psychology changes. With more users trained to expect sales, scarcity tactics and discounts lose their punch. Value, relevance, and trust now hold more weight.

• Digital attention is more fragmented. Mobile dominance and shorter attention spans demand sharper messaging, speed, and clarity.

• Acquisition costs rise, while conversion windows elongate. Scaling on paid channels gets more expensive, requiring smarter segmentation, attribution, and long-term value tracking.

• Retention becomes the competitive moat. If customers expect discounts, subscription or recurring engagement models benefit more than single-purchase models.

For service-based, SaaS, B2B, or subscription-driven businesses, this means now's the time to double down on brand value, customer experience, and lifecycle marketing strategies.

Our POV? Experience-First, Data-Led

At FTF, we treat the holiday season not as a discount sprint, but as a strategy sprint.

We were born in live events, where things move fast, lights stay on, and last-minute changes are the plan. That urgency shaped us. What started in sports now powers ecommerce, real estate, financial services, B2B SaaS, and more.

Our approach to holiday (and year-round) performance:

1. Model full-funnel performance (pre-holiday → post-holiday) to forecast LTV, not just first-order value. 

2. Build flexible checkout and payment stacks. Mobile-first, BNPL-ready, friction-resistant. 

3. Set up multi-touchpoint audience flows — early interest → nurture → conversion → retention.

4. Run A/B and multivariate tests ahead of peak to avoid discount fatigue and maximize signal over noise. No guesswork. No personas pulled from the air. Every touchpoint gets tuned to drive engagement, boost ROI, and optimize the media dollar.

Because in a future where everyone discounts, the brands that win are the ones who design for value, trust, and longevity, not just one-time spikes.

The Holiday Season Is Evolving; So Should Your Strategy

Here's the uncomfortable truth: the deeper your Black Friday discount, the more you're training customers to wait for the next one. You're not building loyalty; you're renting attention.

The shift we're seeing isn't subtle. Early shopping windows, BNPL-driven AOV lifts, and AI-influenced conversions are rewarding brands that invest in experience and infrastructure over flash and splash. “Holiday” is no longer a moment. It's a system. And the brands treating it that way are the ones showing up in January with customers, not just receipts.

If your instincts tell you that deep discounting and splashy promos aren't the full answer, you're right. The future belongs to brands that think bigger: long-term value, flexible experiences, mobile-first flows, and retention over redemption.

Want to talk strategy? Let's connect.